Is our existence guaranteed?… heading towards population implosion!

 

Malthus predicted that an exponential increase in population will lead to only  an arithmetic increase in food production and resulting in shortage of food more of a doom scenario. Boesrup asserted that regardless of population  explosion human beings posses the ability and intelligence to innovate and  support themselves.  
 

Over several decades overpopulation has been christened as a bane for the  society for innumerable reasons such as an instigator of rampant poverty  worldwide, exuberant consumption practices due to industrial activities  propelling climate change and global warming and leading to a rising paucity  of natural resources to meet the needs of the growing population.
 

While Boserup’s predictions haven’t been officially agreed upon it still does  resonate with what is happening at the present moment. Human ideas and  their zeal for innovations and revolution have transformed the way we live, eat, age, travel, and purchase. The most unconventional ideas have been  brought into reality. With the introduction of smart cities to vast adoption of  electrical vehicles to purchasing goods via e-commerece or even social  commerce (on social media platforms), the establishment of meticulous and  immaculate global supply chains due to globalisation, possibilities of mass commercialisation of self driving cars, to manifold innovation in medicine and  health care and vertical agriculture.  
 

Moreover industry behemoths like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Richard  Branson have brought to life a revolutionary idea, space tourism so there is a  possibility that by the end of this century humans beings can inhabit mars or  the moon.  
 

This idea of multiplanetray human beings has been doing rounds in the  grapevine across a plethora of experts belonging to the world of science and  business. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and even Jack Ma have been advocates  of humans becoming multiplanetray species. Musk insists on having a plan B  to live as earth is embroiled with a spectrum of problems like climate  change, war and so forth.  
 

Today leaders (political or business) are perturbed by the conundrum of  population implosion than population explosion. According to the figures  published by the UN, the world population hit 8 billion in November in 2022.  The IHME highlights that by 2064 the total global population will reach its  peak at 9.73 billion and decline by a billion by the end of the century.  
 

According to Eurostat the EU population will peak at 453 million in 2025 and  decline to 420 million in 2100. Italy will see a major decline from 59 million in 2022 to 50.1 million by 2100. Other countries that may witness a major  decline include Greece, Latvia, and Lithuania. In addition by 2100, 30% of  EU’s population is expected to be above 65 years old. By 2100 Japan’s  population may fall to 72 million from 126 million, South Korea’s population  may fall to 24 million from 52 million. Furthermore China too is witnessing a  population decline and ageing population, 12% of china’s population is  above 65 and its population is expected to fall to 800 million by 2100. The  US will have a population of 366 million (without immigration) and 29% of the  population will be in the higher age bracket by 2100.  
 

These are some striking figures that should be taken seriously! So what has been a reasons for such baffling numbers?
 

Fertility rates have been on the decline and below the replacement rate  across the globe in countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Japan and  more. Considering the metamorphosis society and social systems have  undergone over the last few decades, it is pretty evident why there has been  a decline in fertility rates across the world from west to east. Women have  earned an equitable right to select between career progression or indulge in  family life. In addition due to medical assistance child mortality rates have  plunged. The costs of raising children is skyrocketing around the world, even  though governments in Europe or Far East have in place pro natalist policies to encourage child brith. While birth rates plunge, there has been a  stratospheric rise in aging populations worldwide due to advancements in  health care.
 

So what are the consequences of a plummeting population?
 

A decline in population will lead to a dearth of potential labour force that  could act as a backbone of economies around the world. In addition it would  lead to a significant decline in consumption of goods and services thus  hampering the growth of businesses and economic prosperity as a whole.  An ageing population with longer life span not only creates pressure on  governments that offer social benefits, social security programs and  pensions but also on the working population whose taxes make up for these  benefits. In addition the government may witness insufficient funding to  serve the aging population. Taking into consideration how governments and  economies around the world are encountering herculean debt issues, this  may lead to further stress on sustainably bolstering the aging population.  
 

Today leaders go berserk and are enraged about the ramifications of AI,  where it has the potential to surpass human species. In a hypothetical  situation as the world population will diminish, more individuals will not only  be needed to replace the dead or support the elderly population but also to  compete with its own creation AI. Though this may sound like a storyline of a sci-fi movie, there still can be risk of technology dominance if its power  outnumbers human beings.  
 

Firms like Google via Calico are innovating on the lines of immortality and  expanding life expectancy to as much as possible. This may further strain  the younger working population. While governments around the world  contemplate on raising the retirement age (this may not be a welcomed  move), they will need to allocate funds and resources (in partnership with  private firms) to train individuals to up-skill, re-skill and upgrade.  
 

Even if individuals live longer without any health ailments and continue to  play their part in the contributing to the economy, there will still be lack of  fresh ideas, new blood or innovative ideas and possibilities which can only  be sourced from the more genetically evolved younger generations. Jeff Bezos mentioned in an interview that if the world comprised a population of  a trillion, there would be innumerable Mozarts and Einsteins ruling the world.  He believes firms like Blue Origin and space X are building up space  infrastructure (a foundation) that can stimulate future generations to innovate  at a grander scale. And maybe who knows humans beings may become  multi-planetary in the distant future.. though it still sounds farfetched!!!
 

So the big questions are Will we become extinct? …Will we need a Plan B?…Will that Plan B really  work? Will we become multi-planetary? Will technology and AI overpower  us?
 

Humans beings becoming multi-planetary and reigning the space sounds  extremely fanciful. Governments and business leaders around the world are  urgently required to take action on the astoundingly decreasing figures of  birthrates. They may need to create a frameworks that bolsters population  growth (other than immigration) and give it equal importance as is given to  other issues such as climate change, AI, geopolitics, innovation and more. It  is essential for the self sustaining life cycle to run as it has functioned since  centuries for economies and societies to function effectively. 

 

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article are views of the author in general and the author does not hold any legal responsibility or liability for the same.)